Two matches where the chances look more open than the table suggests. In Nice against Rennes, the shot and chance-quality numbers point one way while the home side leans on set pieces and a short rest advantage. In Elversberg against Mainz, both defences give up good chances and the attacks find ways through.
Nice v Rennes: Rennes average far more shots and more on target than Nice, and their expected goals sit well above Nice's. Nice come in with a thin back line, missing Mendy and Bombito, with Seidu not eligible, and Abergel is still out in midfield. Those absences have run for several games, so Nice's recent form already includes them. Rennes lost their keeper Samba and striker Lepaul, but they scored three against Strasbourg without Lepaul. I expect Rennes to carry the shot volume while Nice look for corners and a single clean chance. That is why I am siding with Rennes, with the draw covered.
Elversberg v Mainz: Elversberg concede around two expected goals a game and have three defenders doubtful. Mainz create over two expected goals per game, but they also concede in bursts, including two early penalties against Bremen. Both played cup games midweek and lost, and the last league games of each produced plenty of goals. The first goal should open things up, and the restart period has been a conceding window for both. That is why I am on the goals side here.
