Two early-season NBA games where small samples and one-off results are doing a lot of the talking. In both, the headline numbers are shaped by something specific: a thin, injury-hit roster on one side and a single blowout on the other.
New Orleans vs Sacramento: both teams are winless after four official games, but the gap underneath is large. Sacramento has lost by an average of nearly 18 points, is missing its main forward and both centres plus Ben Simmons, shoots under 30 percent from three and about 72 percent at the line, and turns the ball over a lot. New Orleans has lost by 1, 3, 6 and 13, shoots better from the field and the line, and gets to the line often. The Pelicans do arrive on the second night of a back-to-back, with Poole doubtful and Missi likely out, so the guard rotation is thin. But Sacramento's absences are bigger and have been in its sample for weeks, and it conceded 125 per game in its official games. That's why I'm siding with New Orleans to win at home.
Portland vs Memphis: Portland's 3-0 start looks dominant, but most of the margin comes from one 41-point win over Phoenix. The other two wins were by 7 and 8, and it allowed 129 to the Lakers and 120 to Sacramento. Memphis is 4-0 with narrow road wins, hits threes at a strong rate and shoots about 85 percent at the line. Some three-point regression is likely, yet a Portland win by single digits is the most natural outcome here, and the extra cushion covers it. That's why I'm siding with Memphis getting the points.
