Two NBA games where the shape of the match points one way: a team that has controlled its games against a side that keeps leaking points.
Memphis is 5-0 and has been winning by about twelve a game, powered by hot shooting from three and the free-throw line. Sacramento is 0-5, has lost all ten games counting preseason, and gave up 130 and 132 in its last two. Memphis already beat these Kings 123-112 five days ago, and both teams come in with similar rest, so there is no schedule hole to exploit. The Kings' shooting from three is poor and their defence has not forced misses against anyone. That's why I'm siding with Memphis at home.
In New Orleans, the Pelicans are 1-4 with one win under a new coach, and they have allowed around 114 a game recently. Poole and Missi are both listed out, which removes a second guard creator and the main centre. Atlanta scores about 120 a game through guard scoring and bench depth, and its own absences are long-term ones already reflected in recent results. Zion and Murphy give the Pelicans a real route, but the Hawks' perimeter scoring meets a thin defence, and I'm siding with Atlanta on the road.
