Three MLS matches, three different shapes. The first is two leaky teams trading chances, the second is a home side with the better underlying numbers against a visitor short in goal, and the third is a home side so thin at the back that the match is likely to open up.
New England and Inter Miami both give up a lot. New England has been outshot in its recent run and has leaned on penalties and narrow, high-event wins, while Miami holds the ball but concedes quality chances and has been missing a key defender. Neither side's absences are new, so they are already in the recent scorelines, which keep landing in the three-to-five goal range. That's why I'm leaning toward plenty of goals in this match.
Los Angeles FC has been drawing too often, but the content behind those draws is better than the results: more shots, more corners and a clear expected-goals edge. Minnesota concedes plenty, its first-choice goalkeeper is out and the midfield is thin. At home with a full week of rest, I'm siding with Los Angeles FC to win it in regulation.
Portland is missing its whole central defence pool, a full-back suspended and its first-choice goalkeeper, and it has to win. It concedes over two a game and most of its recent matches have gone over. Houston scores little, but a makeshift Portland line gives it counters and set pieces, and Portland has to push for the result. Calm, cold weather adds nothing to slow it down. That's why I'm backing goals in this match as well.
