Two MLS matches where neither side has a reliable way to stop the other. New England win without controlling games and lean on their goalkeeper, while Miami keep the ball but leave space behind. In Los Angeles, Minnesota cannot accept a draw, and that need pushes them straight into the kind of open game LAFC like best. Both fixtures are built for chances at both ends.
New England have been outshot most weeks, conceding around sixteen shots a game, and their results have come from Turner's saves and an early route from Gil into Turgeman. Miami dominate the ball through Messi, De Paul and Suárez, but Casemiro is filling in at centre-back with Caicedo still out, and they have conceded close to two expected goals a game over their last ten, including late goals against Cincinnati.
The key duel is Gil and Turgeman running at a makeshift Miami centre-back pairing, while Miami's front three test a New England block that relies on its keeper having a big night. Caicedo's absence and New England's long-term injuries are already part of the recent sample, so the shape on the pitch is the one we have been watching. Miami's coach calls this a final, and Miami need the win, so the away side brings the tempo. Once anyone scores, New England's transitions turn it end to end. I'm siding with goals in this one.
In Los Angeles, a draw eliminates Minnesota. They have scored and conceded freely all autumn, with four or more goals in seven of their last eight, and they concede heavily away. LAFC under their interim coach are at their most dangerous when opponents commit numbers, with Son and Bouanga attacking the space behind, as they did against Austin.
Minnesota's advanced full-backs are exactly the space Son and Bouanga want, and LAFC have conceded in six straight matches, two of them from midfield turnovers at this ground a week ago. Minnesota's late bench of Pereyra, Chancalay and Caldeira has produced goals after seventy minutes in several recent games. Trapp and Stroud have been missing for weeks, so their midfield pivot is the one that has been playing. Minnesota have to chase all night, and that feeds both ends. That's why I'm on plenty of goals here too.
