This one comes down to innings that nobody can trust. NC starts Mike Clevinger, who has only lasted three innings and two and a third in his two KBO outings and is kept on a short pitch count, and that hands the game to a bullpen with a 5.04 ERA. SSG starts Choi Min-jun, a 5.07 ERA arm who can look sharp one week and get pulled in the fourth the next. I expect runs on both sides.
Clevinger's two starts tell the story. He went three innings on 50 pitches against LG, then 2 and 2/3 against Samsung, giving up six hits and two homers, and his KBO ERA sits at 6.75. NC even said before he arrived that it might use him in shorter stints because he lacked the pitch count to start.
Choi has had good days. He threw five scoreless innings in early September and went 5 and 2/3 with two runs allowed against LG in August. But he also went four innings and gave up three to Doosan on Sep 6. SSG's bullpen was also stretched in the last game, when starter Lee Ro-un gave up seven runs in 4 and 2/3.
The two clubs have scored a lot against each other all year. Nine of their last ten meetings went over the usual total line, and NC's home games have often been high-scoring, with six of its last ten games at 12 or more combined runs. NC just beat SSG 13-1 with three homers and 14 hits.
Both teams are out of the playoff race, with Doosan already in, so there is no pressure to play tight. I'd rather back the runs than a pitcher's day.
