Napoli still have the attack to hurt anyone, but the back line in front of their goal is almost entirely patched, and it has been fading after the hour. Lazio arrive as the league leaders, unbeaten away, rested and with a bench that keeps scoring late. This is a match of two halves: Napoli's best moments should come early, and the shape after the hour leans toward the visitors.
Napoli under Allegri create plenty, mostly through De Bruyne's passing and McTominay's late runs into the box, and McTominay has scored in nearly every recent game. The problem is at the other end. Di Lorenzo was hurt at Juventus, Marianucci was sent off there, and Buongiorno, Spinazzola and Badiashile were already missing. Vergara, an attacking midfielder, is expected at right wing-back. With nearly this back line, Napoli's second halves have leaked: big chances conceded after the break at Porto and against Bodo, and three goals let in after the 69th minute against Roma.
Lazio under Gattuso sit lower away from home and break down the flanks. They held Juventus to very little in Turin and have conceded only three goals in five away games. Tavares overlapping on the left against that makeshift right side is the matchup I like most, and Isaksen attacks Olivera, who is only just back from injury. Zaccagni is out, but Noslin has already produced from that area.
The timing matters too. Napoli flew back from a Champions League night in Porto midweek, and Lazio have had almost a full week. Lazio's substitutes have scored late in several league games.
I expect Napoli to push hard early in front of their own crowd and Lazio to absorb it. After the hour, fresher Lazio legs meet a tiring, patched Napoli back line. That's why I'm siding with Lazio, with the draw covered.
