Napoli and Roma meet around the first escape from pressure and the space available before either defence resets. Roma retain a direct passing connection into their forward runs, while Napoli still create through wide service and midfield arrivals. At Chelsea, central passing options and cutbacks form the main structural advantage against Tottenham's changed pressing personnel. Both matches place particular importance on the receiver of the second pass.
Roma's strongest connection is Soulé finding Malen, with wingback support and rebounds offering another attack after the first shot. Malen received through passes against Madrid and helped create goals against Slovan both from a saved effort and a subsequent assist. Napoli's Bodo win included repeated deep-pass concessions, and Allegri has identified defending without the ball as work still needed.
Pellegrini's new absence removes a real connector and dead-ball supplier, alongside the continuing Roma absences. The current squad still includes Soulé and Malen. Napoli's McTominay and Anguissa are officially short of full-match fitness, making midfield changes especially relevant as the contest develops. I expect Roma to challenge the first outlet and keep looking for Malen before Napoli settle. That's why I'm siding with Roma, with the draw protected.
Chelsea's Caicedo–Henderson pairing gives Palmer and Rogers a platform between the lines, while Neto and Hato have supplied cutbacks from either side. The Everton performance combined those connections with much better shot suppression than the Bournemouth score alone suggested.
Martinez's injury brings Penders into the expected side, while Gusto is available again. Tottenham retain Solanke and Marmoush, but Bergvall and Savio are out and Maddison's readiness remains uncertain after missed group work. I expect Chelsea's central outlets to help them reach the wide runners and the opposite arrival as the match opens. That's why I'm siding with Chelsea to win.
