Two B.League games where possessions matter more than reputation. Shimane against Toyama sets a home side that rarely gets to the line against a visitor who lives there. Nagasaki against Sendai sets a team that leaks turnovers and fouls against one that is careful with the ball and converts its free throws. In both games the side that wins the extra possessions has done it over many games, not one hot night.
Shimane have lost close games at home, including two by a single point, and their free-throw numbers explain a lot of it. They draw few, and they gave up 29 to 36 attempts against Hokkaido, Hiroshima and Toyama. Their coach has named offensive rebounds and early fouls as a problem. Toyama attack the paint through Angola, Simms and Willis and drew between 21 and 30 free throws in every road game we have. They shoot better away from home, scoring 83 to 105 on the road. In the last meeting Toyama shot 36 free throws to Shimane's 22.
Shimane's best weapon is home three-point volume. They made 11 to 14 in four of their last seven home games, and a hot night can open the game up. Toyama's imports all played two days earlier, and Shimane's core is rested. Still, the free-throw gap is a repeated trait on both sides, and the likeliest shape is a game decided in the final minutes. That's why I'm siding with Toyama.
In Nagasaki, the home team is often level at half-time and then fades. They lost the fourth quarter in five of their eight league games. Their ball handling leaks: 15 to 17 turnovers in four of those eight, with the same core of Brantley, Randolph, Baba and Aguilar. They also concede about five more free throws a game than they earn. Sendai are the opposite. They protect the ball, Culver gets downhill and Sendai shoot 81 percent at the line, and they held ten opponents, including Mikawa, the Sunrockers and Alvark, to under 33 percent from three.
Nagasaki's route is a big three-point night at home, as in their win over Ryukyu, and Sendai's recent road wins have been close. Lightfoot has been missing from Sendai's last two box scores, so their recent form already reflects that. Over 40 minutes, extra possessions plus free throws add up to several baskets, and they tend to grow late. That's why I'm siding with Sendai to win clearly.
