Two close readings joined together. In Ulsan, both teams are down to a single import, so the game becomes Sono's relentless three-point volume against the Mobis perimeter defence, with Mobis's edge at the free-throw line pushing back. In Kariya, Mikawa are clearly the better side, but their big wins came against weak teams, and against upper-table opponents their margins have been close to even.
Mobis vs Sono. Mobis lost Prim and Bazley, so Spellman plays nearly 40 minutes alone; Sono lost Scotty James to a back fracture and O'Bryant carries the interior on his own. Without James, Sono shoot even more from deep: 42 threes at LG last time out, and they have made ten or more in 13 straight games. Mobis allow the fewest threes in the league, but Sono were the one team to break that defence, going 16 of 38 in the October meeting. Mobis win the line by about four or five points a game, yet they give the ball away more, 13 to 15 times in recent games, and have scored just 67, 76 and 85 in their last three. Sono lost by a single point at LG with this same group. That's why I'm siding with Sono on the road.
Mikawa vs Shinshu. Mikawa have been shooting 43 percent from three, a rate built partly against Osaka, Toyama and Saga, and against Alvark, Kyoto, Shiga, Gunma and Sendai their average margin is about zero. Shinshu's big weakness is turnovers, but Mikawa force fewer than ten a game, so that hurts less here. Mikawa still hold a measured edge at the line and a small edge on turnovers, plus home court, which puts the centre of the game around a six to eight point Mikawa win. No absences are reported for either side, and both played full rotations last weekend. That's why I'm siding with Shinshu to keep it close.
