Mobis and Sono both arrive with only one import, so the size gap that has cost Sono close games is gone in this match, and its three-point volume becomes the clearest unit edge on the floor. In Chiba against Osaka, the total depends far more on what Osaka can score with their current roster than on how leaky Chiba's defence has looked against real offences. Osaka's production with these players has sat in a narrow, low band for weeks. Two different questions, one common thread: read the units that actually take the floor, not the season averages.
Mobis against Sono. Mobis are down to Spellman after Prim and Bazley went out for about six weeks, and the stand-in deal for a second import is reported to be falling through. Sono lost James to a lumbar fracture and play through O'Bryant. Sono have made ten or more threes in all thirteen games and took 42 attempts at LG, while Mobis take around 30 at home. Mobis's league-low threes-allowed figure was built against two-import teams that attacked inside, and Sono hit 16 threes against them back in October.
The turnover row matters too. Sono's turnover problem shows up against teams that force, but Mobis have managed only four steals in each of their last three games, so Sono should lose fewer possessions than usual. Mobis do have real edges: Spellman scored 33 in his last game, Seo and Spellman draw fouls at home, and Sono's guards pick up fouls. Those keep it close, but Spellman has played 38 and 40 minutes on short rest with a thin bench behind him, while Sono come in with an extra day off. I expect a tight first half, with Sono's volume telling in the second. That's why I'm siding with Sono to win.
Chiba against Osaka. Osaka have lost thirteen straight and scored between 57 and 71 in eight of their last ten games, shooting 31% from three and 62% at the line. Even with Palmer back on November 7 they scored 68. Gerun returns from a hand fracture, but it is his first game since September. When these teams met in October, Chiba took 43 threes and dominated the glass, and the game still finished 87-65.
Chiba lose Nate Williams, who scored 25 in that meeting, and Watanabe is doubtful. They are also playing a third game in five days, with a trip to Shiga next, so a big lead should bring bench minutes rather than starters chasing points. Chiba's high-scoring games came against opponents who put up 78 to 109 themselves, and Osaka cannot do that. I see Chiba in the high 80s to mid 90s and Osaka in the 60s, so I'm on the under in this one.
