This game turns on the innings between the starters and the strongest relief arms. Milwaukee built its opening win through early baserunners and an effective middle-inning handoff. Tampa Bay brings a starter with deeper recent coverage and several different ways to challenge Henderson.
Rasmussen has completed eight, six and seven innings in his recent starts. Henderson's corresponding sequence was five, five and four, with eight walks. Caminero's damage against fastballs and Aranda's contact against secondary pitches give Milwaukee different problems within the same part of the order.
The main hitters behind this view all appeared in the opening game. Rasmussen and Henderson are the officially identified starters; the catching assignments remain projections. Baker and Booser are reported rested, giving Tampa Bay an available pair to protect the later innings.
The middle innings are where that difference in coverage should matter most. Fewer bridge outs would let Tampa Bay move more directly toward its stronger late options. That's why I'm siding with the Rays to win.
