World Series Game 1 looks like a bullpen-shaped game. The home side has the deeper lineup and a fresh pen, while the visitors changed their plan and handed the ball to a swingman instead of their best starter. Expect a tight, low-to-mid scoring game that is decided from the middle innings on.
Milwaukee won 103 games with a big run differential and swept its way here. Its starter has electric stuff but has not gone five innings in either postseason start, so the pen gets tested early. That pen is rested, and this lineup already beat Tampa Bay's starter for two runs in six innings back in June.
Tampa Bay's path is a rusty home starter after a long layoff and a thin bullpen behind a missing closer. That is real, but holding back the better arm for Game 2 gives Milwaukee the edge in the early innings. That's why I'm siding with the Brewers at home.
In K League 1, Ulsan hosts Pohang with the table pointing one way and the shot data pointing the same way. Ulsan is second and scores freely at home. Pohang is ninth, averages under nine shots and a tiny xG, and was shut out three times in its last four.
Pohang concedes about seventeen shots and two expected goals per game, so Ulsan should hold the ball and get chances. Ulsan's own defence leaks, and a Pohang break or set play can make it tense, but Pohang rarely scores twice. That's why I'm siding with Ulsan to win in regulation.
