Manchester United's worst home display of the league season came in the game where they had the most of the ball. Against Bournemouth they held 63% possession, took 17 shots and still lost 0-3, giving up 2.15 expected goals going the other way. Aston Villa are a side who are perfectly comfortable without it: they beat Manchester City 2-1 on 37% possession and 0.61 xG. So for me this match is less about form than about who ends up stuck holding the ball at Old Trafford, and what is left behind them when they lose it.
That question looks awkward for United. Lisandro Martínez is suspended after his red card at Chelsea, Carrick said Carlos Baleba will be out for weeks with the hamstring he hurt against Roma, and Manuel Ugarte is still out with his knee. The predicted line-ups have Tielemans and Mainoo as the pivot in front of Maguire, who limped off late against Roma, and Heaven. That is a lot of the players who normally stop counter-attacks missing, in a game where a home side with one league win from nine, and a manager answering questions about his future, will feel they have to push.
It isn't a one-way picture, though. Villa's own defending hasn't been tidy: across nine recent games with stats they allow 15.4 shots and 1.6 xG a match, and they've conceded 6 in 4 league away games. Their right side is the soft spot this time, with Matty Cash suspended for five bookings and Wan-Bissaka needing a late fitness test, so Sports Mole has Bogarde at right-back, which is where Cunha is expected to line up. And United's best recent performance, the 3-2 over Roma, came in a stretched game (2.72 xG for them on 52% of the ball), not a slow siege.
Emery said United are "the same level as Barcelona". At the Camp Nou Villa had 35% of the ball and 0.72 xG, so if he plans this one the same way, United will be handed possession whether they want it or not. That's why I think the first goal matters more than usual here. A United lead forces Villa to come out and gives United the open game they've looked better in; a level game deep into the second half leaves them circling the box, which is exactly how the Bournemouth match went wrong.
