City and Brighton both have routes through the first line of pressure, so the quality of the next box reception matters more than territory alone. Brighton's cup side has already found a second attack after falling behind. Bournemouth and Villa bring another first-pass contest, with Bournemouth's high recoveries aimed at space before Villa can reset. A quick opening chance need not settle either match; the renewed supply is the key.
City can press a changed Brighton back line and send Foden or a wide runner into the area. Brighton have shown a Hadjam-to-Kostoulas connection and later Groß or De Cuyper supply, while City have announced rest for several Villa starters, including proven finishing and second-ball roles. Those Brighton receivers give the away side a path to stay in touch even after City take the initiative. I'm siding with Brighton to keep the match close.
Bournemouth's high recoveries can release a wide runner and find Evanilson or a far-post target before Villa's defensive shape settles. They have also built a second chance from restarts and loose balls; the Sunderland score alone is not the foundation of that picture. Villa have their own outlet when the press is beaten, but Bournemouth's repeated home supply and the expected cup role changes point toward the home side making the stronger winning chance. I'm siding with Bournemouth to come out ahead.
