This matchup turns on Glasnow's command and the handoff from Milwaukee's short opening stint to its longer relief work. Both lineups have ways to reach base, but the next run-scoring chance after the first rally is the decisive test. The pitching changes matter as much as the named starters in this series game.
Milwaukee have built runs through Chourio starting innings, Turang and Contreras moving runners, and the middle order finishing the work. Glasnow walked five in his last start against Atlanta and left before completing five innings, although he allowed only one run. Los Angeles can attack left-hander Shane Drohan with Betts, Hernández and Smith around Freeman, Tucker and Ohtani; their recent traffic has less often become a second scoring inning.
MLB's projected Milwaukee order brings Yelich, Frelick and Hamilton into roles occupied by Vaughn, Lara and Ortiz in the previous game. Ohtani and Freeman both played that game despite reported physical issues, and Smith delivered a two-run double. Drohan opens a bullpen game, with May, Patrick and Harrison available for longer work; Hall and Megill handled heavy work in the previous game.
The early innings should test whether Chourio, Turang and Contreras can turn Glasnow's long counts into runners who advance and score. Milwaukee can then use its fresher middle-inning arms to meet the Dodgers' next turn through the order. The Brewers have already answered Los Angeles rallies in this series, while the Dodgers have struggled to add another scoring inning after their first. That's why I'm siding with Milwaukee to win this match.
