Lorient can keep Brest's possession away from the centre of the box, while Brest can threaten through Ajorque and set pieces. The next clean chance after an opening exchange is the key to their scoring pattern. Newcastle and Everton should play at a faster tempo, with Newcastle's wide supply meeting Everton's direct route past the press. In that game, the quality of the next transition matters as much as the first wave of shots.
Lorient's back three have made opponents work for good central shots, and Sylla with Makengo provide a more direct home reply than long possession. Brest's big home chance totals have not travelled well in its recent away games, even though Ajorque and Doumbia can create the first opening. Brest's changed central cover may give Lorient one good wing entry, and neither recent attack has shown reliable repeated finishes after that. That's why I'm siding with a lower scoring Lorient and Brest match.
Newcastle can bring Murphy, Barnes and Wissa into repeated box deliveries, but Everton's Garner, Hackney and Barry have already found a short route through this press. Pickford and Tarkowski ended many Newcastle attacks in the cup despite the hosts' heavy shot count. Mykolenko actually played in that cup game, and Everton's attacking route worked without Grealish; the projected elevens remain unconfirmed. With Newcastle still allowing chances behind its high line, I'm siding with Everton to take something from this match.
