Two Champions League nights where one side's defence has been exposed every time it met a better opponent. Lens' patched-up back three has leaked to every stronger side it has faced, and Como bring exactly the kind of possession game that tests it. Leipzig have shipped heavy chance totals in all four meetings with elite attacks, and Manchester City are that level of attack. In both games, the matchup matters more than the recent results.
Lens against Como first. Lens' back three is missing both first-choice centre-backs, and Todibo is not fully fit. Against Sporting, Brugge and Lille, that unit gave up big chances every time. Como, meanwhile, have created steadily in each of their last five games with the same forwards they will field here, Nico Paz working between the lines and Douvikas finishing. Lens did put real volume on Sporting at home. Even so, they have not scored in three games against better sides, and against possession-heavy Lille they barely managed a shot.
The home side's best routes are Thauvin's set pieces and transitions against Como's makeshift centre-back pairing. Como have already shown at Torino that a thin squad can still win late. I expect Como to have the ball and keep probing that back three. That's why I'm backing Como to win in Lens.
Now Leipzig against Manchester City. Leipzig's clean sheets at home came against Frankfurt, PSV, Elversberg and Hamburg. Against Bayern, Real Madrid, Como and Leverkusen they conceded between two and six goals. City's recent defeats were not about creating less: they still made plenty of chances against Villa and Brighton and finished poorly. Their goalkeeper has also been letting in more than the chances he faces suggest.
The key duels are Nusa and Gruda running at City's full-backs on the break, and Foden, Cherki and Haaland against Leipzig's centre-backs. Both teams need the win. If City score first, Leipzig have to open up, which is how their elite games got away from them. That's why I expect goals at both ends in Leipzig and I'm on the high-scoring side.
