Lecce should press Genoa's back line and work the ball into the box, while Genoa can break through Baldanzi and Vitinha. The first goal will change which side has to expose its wide defence. The match may turn on whether the next attack becomes a finished shot or a cleared transition.
Genoa scored early in its recent wins, but Juventus and Venezia still reached its box repeatedly and Bijlow had to make important saves. Lecce's replacements generated box shots against Juventus and Frosinone, giving the home side an active route rather than a hypothetical full-strength attack. Most of Lecce's listed absences were already missing at Frosinone; Monteiro scored there, and Štulić and N'Dri played. Genoa's Ellertsson made the squad after leaving the Juventus game injured, while his full role is unconfirmed.
Lecce can keep testing Genoa with a wider front line and another entry after the first clearance. At the other end, Genoa's direct outlet demands that Lecce finish its own defensive phase. I see enough sustained Lecce box supply to side with Lecce, with a draw returning the selection.
