Three Korean matches, and each one turns on a specific part of the game rather than on reputation. In the Korean Series it is about who covers the middle innings after the starters leave. In the KBL it is one team's ball pressure against the other side's most error-prone handler. In the WKBL opener it is three-point volume against a team that has nobody to take the big shot late.
KT Wiz vs Samsung Lions, Game 2. KT won the opener 8-7 after leading 8-0, so both sides have shown their strength and their weakness. KT's starter Ko Young-pyo is a 29-start workhorse on full rest. Samsung's Pedek has gone 4.2 and 5.1 innings this postseason at 97 to 99 pitches, so Samsung will probably need three or four innings from its bullpen again. That pen threw about six innings in Game 1, with Yang Chang-seop walking or hitting four batters, and Samsung have had no closer since Kim Jae-yoon got hurt.
KT's collapse in Game 1 came from a choice of reliever, not from tired arms: Logan Allen was sent out to face Samsung's lefties and gave up the inning. Lee Kang-chul has already said Jeon Yong-ju and Son Dong-hyun will take those spots, and Jeon did not pitch in Game 1. Samsung's left-handed hitters, Koo Ja-wook and Kim Young-woong among them, showed they can score late, so I am backing KT to win, not to win big. Kim Hyun-soo's sore thumb is a small question mark for KT's lineup.
Seoul Knights vs KoGas. SK lead the league in steals, fast-break points and points off turnovers, and they also commit the fewest turnovers. KoGas are third-worst at protecting the ball, and DB already forced 18 turnovers out of them. Their big man Aluma had five turnovers in his last game, was benched for most of the middle quarters and was criticised by his coach. KoGas are 1-5 when he plays under 30 minutes.
SK are without Daniel, so KoGas should win the boards by a couple. KoGas also take more threes against a home perimeter defence that has given up too many. But they have shot only about 30 percent across seven boxed games, while SK have been closer to 35. Count the four things that decide possessions (turnovers, rebounds, free-throw trips, three-point volume) and SK come out a few baskets ahead, decided in the second and third quarters when their two imports share the floor. SK already beat unbeaten Samsung by 14 without Daniel. I'm with Seoul Knights to win.
Shinhan S-Birds vs Woori WON, the season opener. Woori play without a true big. Kim Dan-bi draws help defence and kicks the ball out to shooters, and the summer signing Kang Lee-seul adds to that group. When these rosters met in preseason, without Kang, Woori hit eight threes in the second quarter alone and won by 24. Shinhan are longer, with Hong Yu-sun, Noguchi and Kaneda, and they won the boards in that game. But every preview says the same thing about them: no go-to shooter. Late in that game their half-court offence stalled, with shot-clock violations and six points in the fourth quarter.
Expect the opener to start slowly and stay low-scoring, with Shinhan's home energy keeping it close early. As Woori's shooters find their rhythm and Shinhan's late possessions run out of answers, the visitors should pull clear. So the third leg is Woori to win.
