This is a meeting of two teams whose first game no longer tells you much. Anyang was built around Mooney's rim and rebounding, and he is out until late December, so the middle of its team has changed shape. KoGas is an inside team that shoots poorly from deep, and it now brings two healthy bigs into the stretch where both imports play. The game comes down to whether Anyang's clean possessions and guard depth can make up for what it lost near the basket.
KoGas runs through Belangel's playmaking and Aluma's scoring and rebounding, with Rah Gun-ah as the second big. Its outside shot is the worst in the league, and it loses when that goes cold and the handlers turn it over. Anyang wins differently: it protects the ball, averaging about eight turnovers to KoGas's ten and a half over the last ten games, and it spreads its scoring across a deep domestic group.
The key matchup is Aluma and Rah against Thomas and Reid in the second and third quarters. In the first meeting Anyang won the boards 40-28 and Mooney alone took 17 rebounds. Thomas has just returned from a knee bone bruise and played about 30 minutes last time out, while Reid is a 195cm shooting forward who picked up four fouls in barely 18 minutes against KT. The fourth came early in the second quarter, which KT won 31-14.
The second piece is the two-man defence. Anyang's coach said the coverage was built around Mooney and still has to be fitted, and KT and SK both shot well on twos in their games without him. KoGas took only 28 twos in the first meeting and should get far more touches inside now. Anyang's perimeter defence has also been giving up threes, conceding almost 39 percent across the three games without Mooney, so even KoGas's weakest end gets some air.
Anyang is 0-3 without Mooney, losing by 8, 2 and 2, and the role has not been replaced. KoGas's starters played only about 27 minutes in their last game, and the team is 4-2 at home in Daegu, while Anyang has played just three road games and won one of them. KoGas's last two wins came against import-short teams, so I size the inside edge down, but it still rests on who is on the floor now, not on old results.
I expect Anyang's fresh guards to start well, since the first quarter is its best window. The turn should come in the middle quarters as the bigs go to work and fouls build up. Anyang's ball security keeps it close, so this looks like a game of a few possessions, and KoGas's edge at the line, 82 percent against 74, matters at the end.
That's why I'm siding with KoGas to win this one at home.
