Three games, three different shapes. The Korean Series game is a bullpen fight between two starters who have not gone deep. The Korean league game pits an unbeaten road side against a favourite whose record is mediocre. The Japanese game is two leaky defences meeting in an early-season matchup.
KIA vs Samsung: Samsung leads the series two games to one after winning the last two. KIA's starters have not reached the fifth inning all series, and Samsung's Fedde was gone after 4.2 innings in the opener. Both bullpens are worn: Samsung used 15 pitchers over three games, with Lee Seung-min and Won Tae-in on three straight days, and KIA used 21. Series totals so far were 6, 11 and 10 runs. Naile has a good record against Samsung and the weather is cold and damp, but with both starters expected out by the fifth and the middle innings handed to tired arms, I'm backing more runs than the market expects.
Goyang vs Seoul: Seoul is 8-0 with a scoring margin around eight a game, and it has already beaten Goyang 82-81. Goyang sits fifth at 4-5 with a margin near zero, concedes about 88 a game and has played three games in six days, while Seoul has had five days of rest. Seoul's wins are usually close and built on three-point volume, so I'm taking the points with Seoul rather than needing an outright win. No lineup news exists for either side, and Seoul's Shin absence is already inside its unbeaten run.
Akita vs Chiba: both teams are near the bottom of the table and both give up 85 or more a game. Their last-ten combined scoring is about 166 and 167, above where the total is set. Akita's three home games finished with combined scores of 181, 197 and 168, and Chiba's turnovers on the road feed Akita's transition game. Chiba's low road scoring is the case for a slower night, but I think this one lands on the high side.
That's why I'm on the higher-scoring side in Gwangju, with Seoul on the points, and on the higher-scoring side in Akita.
