Two games here where the headline form hides what is actually going on. In Bourg against Tofas, Bourg's own club says their leading scorer Tyson Walker may miss out, and Tofas bring a pressing, foul-drawing side that has been far more competitive away from home than its results suggest. At Hampden, Scotland already had the better of Slovenia once without the goals to show for it, and this time Slovenia arrive without Benjamin Šeško. Both reads come down to how the game is played, not the names on the scoresheet.
Start with Bourg. Walker carried them in Naples with 20 points in 34 minutes, and they still lost 84-76. The club's own preview says he looks to have been hurt again at the weekend. Their only comfortable win so far came at home against Chalon.
Tofas are 0-4 on the road, but look at who beat them and by how much: Cluj by a point, Besiktas by four, Fenerbahce by five. The one heavy defeat was at Denizli, who made 18 of their 33 threes, a night that doesn't happen often. In their EuroCup opener against Chemnitz, Tofas made 12 steals, forced 17 turnovers and went to the line 34 times. That kind of pressure is exactly what a backcourt missing its main creator struggles with.
Now Scotland. The first meeting in Slovenia finished goalless, but Scotland had 65% of the ball, 17 shots to 4 and around 2.2 expected goals to Slovenia's half a goal. Then in North Macedonia, already without Che Adams, Lawrence Shankland and Scott McTominay, they had 25 shots with 10 on target and won 2-0, Kieron Bowie scoring early and John McGinn adding a penalty.
The 3-0 home loss to Switzerland looks bad on paper, but Jack Hendry was sent off in the 11th minute. That was a game against ten men, not a sign of a home problem, and Hendry is available again.
Slovenia sat deep and barely threatened in the first game, and they created little at Switzerland either. Now Šeško has withdrawn with a shin injury and Niko Prelec isn't in the travelling squad, so the outlet that might have punished Scotland on the break is gone. Jan Oblak will have a busy evening.
