Two matches where the lean is modest but the structure gives a reason. One is a level table clash where chance quality leans one way, the other a likely low-scoring game shaped by weather and missing strikers.
Jeonbuk against Daejeon: the two are a point apart and Daejeon have been the more productive side, with shots of 16 to 10 and an expected-goals edge of 1.5 to 0.6 over their last ten. Their earlier win over Jeonbuk came with 2.42 expected goals to 0.90. Daejeon also travelled less, while Jeonbuk have a reported captain dispute and a striker being managed in minutes. Seven of fourteen meetings were draws, which is why I'm siding with Daejeon on a safer footing where a draw is not a loss.
Melbourne City against Sydney FC: it is only round three, but a severe thunderstorm is forecast, City are without both of their striker options, and Sydney's coach wants clean sheets. Sydney's recent games were a 0-0 and a narrow 2-1. That's why I'm siding with a low-scoring game here, with few goals.
