Two English matches where the table hides what the chances say. Ipswich sit above Nottingham Forest, but Forest have created far more on the road against tougher opposition, and Ipswich's points rest on late goals. At Bolton, Middlesbrough's chance volume meets a home side that plays best without the ball, against a stand-in Boro centre-back pair. In both games, the underlying numbers point a different way from the league position.
Under Glasner, Forest have produced between 2.3 and 3.0 expected goals in all three league away games, at Liverpool, Villa and Palace, all stronger sides than Ipswich. Their problem has been finishing, not creating. Ipswich have allowed about 14 expected goals in seven league games. Their wins came from two goals in the last minutes against Fulham while behind on chances, and against ten men at Palace. Now they lose Lukic, the midfielder who screens their back line.
Glasner says Gibbs-White trained all week, and he was Forest's creator in their two best away games, while Milenkovic is back to deal with the crosses Ipswich will throw in late. I expect Ipswich to sit in a five and Forest to have more of the ball, with the game opening up after the hour. With the stronger chance creation in the same setting, I'm siding with Forest, covered if it ends level.
At Bolton, Boro take around 18 shots a game and Bolton concede 1.7 goals per match, so the visitors' route to a goal is clear. Bolton's own goals come when they give up the ball and break: they won 3-1 at Wolves, 4-3 at Norwich and 1-0 against Cardiff with about 40 percent possession. That is the game Boro will force on them. Since Jones went out, Boro's stand-in pair has conceded in five of six, mostly to direct sides that let Boro have the ball.
If Bolton score first, Boro's half-time changes bring the kind of pressure that produced two second-half goals against both Millwall and Cardiff. If Boro score first, Bolton have to step out, which leaves room at both ends. Both sides have a goal route that does not depend on the other, so I expect both teams to score.
