Indiana against Denver in Mexico City sets three-point volume and ball pressure against Jokic, free throws and two-point efficiency. The Indiana side on the floor is not the one behind its losing record: Zubac, Nembhard and Nesmith are all back. Denver's two losses this season looked alike, with the opponent taking far more threes and winning the glass. This Indiana group is built to play exactly that kind of game, and the thin air at altitude hangs over the fourth quarter.
Denver wins through Jokic's post work and passing, Murray's scoring and getting to the line. It has out-attempted opponents at the free-throw line in recent games and shoots around half its field goals. But it takes relatively few threes, gives up a lot of three-point volume, and has lost the rebounding battle in four of its last five. Both of its defeats, against Portland and Golden State, came when the opponent took about fifteen more threes and won the boards by double digits.
Indiana shoots threes in bulk every game, mid-thirties to high-forties in attempts, even if the accuracy has been poor without Haliburton. With Nembhard and Nesmith back on the perimeter, the defence forced twenty turnovers in the win at Memphis. Denver has been loose with the ball, turning it over fifteen or more times in three of its last five, and its coach has pointed to pressure as the problem.
The key matchup is Jokic against Zubac, who only just returned from an ankle sprain and played limited minutes. When Zubac sits, Jokic gets size advantages in the post, and that is Denver's best route to pulling away. On the other end, Nembhard and Nesmith hounding Murray and Braun is where Indiana can win back the possessions it gives away at the free-throw line.
Haliburton did not travel, but he has missed every game since late October, so every Indiana number here already comes without him. McConnell has not played all season, so anything he adds is a bonus. Oubre missed the last two games but says he will go. For Denver, DeRozan is probable and Spencer Jones is cleared to debut, which deepens their second unit.
I expect the first half to stay tight, with the second quarter favouring Denver's deeper bench and the third giving Jokic more post touches. Indiana's answer is volume: if a normal share of those threes fall and the pressure keeps producing turnovers, this stays a one- or two-possession game deep into the fourth. Indiana's recent losses to comparable teams came by four to eight points.
I'm not claiming an upset. I'm claiming a competitive game in which Indiana's three-point volume and guard pressure keep the margin close to Denver's free-throw and post edge. That's why I'm siding with Indiana to stay within the number.
