Hoffenheim's central combinations and Lyon's wide exits will decide who gets clean entries into the box. The home side has recently built chances through several connected players rather than one isolated finish. Lyon can move quickly after a recovery, which makes control of the first pass and the space left behind it central to this match.
Avdullahu can link Prass and Conté to Asllani or Hložek, and Hoffenheim's recent away attack produced eight shots on target. Lyon can release Nakamura or Nuamah into the wide channels, but Openda is unavailable and Šulc, who played most of the Nice match and scored, is newly absent. Fonseca has said Himbert will start; his finishing role is less established this season than the one Šulc just filled.
I expect Hoffenheim to work repeatedly into the attacking third and find a box receiver through either flank or the next central pass. Kramarić also gives them another way to sustain that supply later. The stronger repeat route to a decisive finish is why I'm siding with Hoffenheim to win.
