Two European nights with open defences on one side. In Plzen the home team creates the better chances but leaks goals; in Hoffenheim both teams have been involved in high-event games lately.
Plzen against Levski Sofia: Plzen have lost both European games so far, yet at Ferencvaros they won the chance count on expected goals and took most shots from inside the box. Levski arrive without defenders Kamdem, Trdin and Hristov, all of whom played the last match, plus Sangare and Kirilov up front. A patched back line against a home side that gets box shots is the key matchup. I expect Plzen to carry the play and edge it. That's why I'm siding with Plzen to win.
Hoffenheim against Lyon: Hoffenheim have had three or more goals in nine of their last ten and concede around two and a third a game, allowing plenty of shots inside the box. Lyon create about five shots on target a match and score in late phases. Lyon are missing Openda, Ouedraogo, Tagliafico and Sulc, but Hoffenheim's possession pushes the game open and both sides have scored late. That's why I'm on plenty of goals in this one.
