Two counter-attacking sides meet here, and both are missing the players who make their counters work. Hamburg and Gladbach are at their best when the opponent has the ball and leaves space. Neither has shown it can carry the ball well against a side that sits off. When both teams would rather not have it, chances tend to dry up.
The clearest evidence is a shared opponent. Hamburg lost one-nil at Paderborn, creating very little once they had to build, and Gladbach drew nil-nil at home to the same Paderborn. The two meetings between these sides last season both finished goalless.
The absences push the same way. Hamburg are without Vieira, their link between midfield and attack, plus Remberg and Nadir. Gladbach have lost Bolin, Hashioka and Kuhn, the wide runners who gave Mohya support on the break, and Kleindienst is out up front. At the back, Hamburg have Capaldo and Bornauw returning to training, which makes their defence more likely to improve than to get worse.
I expect an energetic Hamburg start in front of their crowd, then a cagey, set-piece-heavy game with long spells where nobody wants to commit numbers. A draw keeps Gladbach within touch, so neither side has a reason to open up early. That's why I'm siding with a low-scoring match.
