Two Serie A games, two different stories. In one, a home side that attacks in waves meets a visitor that has lost most of its attacking depth. In the other, two patched-up back lines meet with neither attack in great shape, but plenty of chances likely at both ends.
Frosinone against Lecce: Frosinone play open, high-volume football at home, with plenty of goals scored in their home games over the last twenty. They also concede chances, so this is not about a clean sheet. The key is Lecce's side of it: Ilic, Berisha, Coulibaly and Pierotti are out in attack and midfield, and Gaspar is suspended at the back. Lecce average about one goal a game, and their counter-attacks have fewer finishers than usual. Berisha and Ilic were already missing in recent games, so part of this is known, but the suspension and Pierotti are new. Shots on target are roughly even between the sides, so I am not leaning on volume; I am leaning on home scoring against a thin visiting attack. That's why I'm siding with Frosinone to win.
Fiorentina against Atalanta: Atalanta are without four defenders, Fiorentina without two and with a third doubtful. Atalanta kept producing big shot numbers in their last league game even without their strikers, and Fiorentina have been conceding around two a game, with nearly all of their recent home games finishing with plenty of goals. Fiorentina's attack is blunt and Atalanta's forwards are missing, which is the real counterweight, but two thin defences should still give the game enough chances. I'm on the goals side here, expecting an open, back-and-forth match.
