Two matches where thinned-out defences shape the script. In one, a high-volume visitor meets a home back line short of several regulars; in the other, two mid-table Championship sides with leaky habits and depleted midfields meet.
Feyenoord against Inter: Inter average about 21 shots and 2.7 expected goals a game over their last nine, against 2.0 for Feyenoord over ten. Feyenoord have four defenders out, and three of them have missed the last six games, so their recent numbers already include that. Inter lost their last game at Milan despite far better chances, and they miss Bastoni and Martinez, so their finishing is a question.
Feyenoord's route is counters and set pieces at De Kuip, which is real. Still, the longer measured sample favours Inter's territory and box volume against a thin back line. That's why I'm siding with Inter not to lose, with the stake returned on a draw.
Birmingham against Millwall: over the last ten, each side has seen three or more goals in seven games, and the chance totals for both sit around three, above a normal goal line. Millwall are on a replacement goalkeeper and without De Norre and Metcalfe in midfield; Birmingham miss Leonard and Paik. Both sides have also had quiet outings, so it is a modest lean. I'm on the goals side, since weakened defences on both ends make a third goal more likely than not.
