Three Europa League matches on this slip, and each one comes down to what a team does by itself, not to who is missing on the other side. Ferencvaros and Juventus both control their games through their own patterns, against opponents whose routes to goal are thin. In Sinsheim the picture is different: two sides that each carry a working attack into a defence with a clear weak spot.
Ferencvaros v Torreense. Ferencvaros press high at home and produce real volume, more than two expected goals in their comparable matches, including against Plzen six days ago with the same starting XI. Torreense's coach wants to build through Joao Marques against a press he himself calls strong, and that should hand Ferencvaros the ball in Torreense's half. Torreense's own creation is tiny. They managed three shots at home to Sunderland, and their chance quality almost disappeared after the break in both of their European matches. The patient scenario is Ferencvaros pinning them in, a goal arriving, and Torreense having to come out. That's why I'm siding with Ferencvaros to win.
Juventus v Rennes. Juve's first halves have been slow, and they have gone behind early in three straight games, so I am not expecting fireworks from the start. What carries this match is what Juve do without the ball. They have allowed very few open-play chances in every recent match, and they keep turning games in the second half, as they did with the comeback at Celta. Kolo Muani and Woltemade start together, and the spine that produced those numbers is intact. Most of Juve's absentees were already missing when those performances happened. Rennes travel without Lepaul, their focal striker and penalty taker, and their away defending against comparable sides has leaked heavily, at Lyon and Paris FC. I'm with Juventus, expecting the game to tilt their way after the break.
Hoffenheim v Lyon. Hoffenheim come with volume, corners and crosses, and Machida is a real threat in the air. Fonseca has said both of Lyon's regular full-backs will be rested, so a back line that has not played together has to deal with that delivery. At the other end, Hoffenheim keep conceding late in transition: Besiktas scored in the middle of the second half, HSV twice at the very end, and Ilzer warned about it himself. That is exactly where Lyon's runners, Nakamura, Boudache and Bidstrup, do their best work, with Nuamah and Tolisso to come off the bench. The second half should open up whoever scores first. That's why I expect goals at both ends in this one.
