Porto can press PSV's first pass and build pressure around the visitors' box. PSV still have a route through midfield into the wide spaces behind Porto's fullbacks. Liverpool should begin aggressively at Anfield, but Villarreal have shown they can hold their shape against strong away opponents. Their match turns on whether Liverpool's first recoveries prevent Villarreal from finding a central outlet.
PSV created chances at Leipzig with several of their longer-standing absentees already missing, and Kovář kept a busy game close. Sano and the available wide suppliers can help them escape Porto's press, while Porto's recent European goals at Betis came from a free kick and a substitute connection rather than sustained finishing. Til, Mauro and Perišić have fitness questions, but the tested PSV core gives them a route through this match. I’m siding with PSV to keep the score close.
Villarreal limited Madrid's chance quality away from home and created through its current central attack against Elche with Pepe already absent. Liverpool's Wirtz, Barcola and Isak can supply and finish repeatedly, but LASK also found chances against Liverpool, and Villarreal's compact shape has held up in demanding trips. Gravenberch's return strengthens Liverpool's first pass; their right-side cover has changed more recently. I’m siding with Villarreal to keep Liverpool within reach.
