Three matches where one side's weakest unit sits right in the path of what the other side does best. In Rome, the defensive shape that carried Cagliari through September has come apart on the flanks. In Rotterdam, Excelsior's home defence has been leaking while their attack barely creates. In Strasbourg, two loose defences meet under two coaches who have no interest in sitting back.
Lazio first. Gattuso's side wins down the wings: Tavares overlapping Zaccagni on the left, Floriani Mussolini with Isaksen on the right, and runners like Taylor, Frattesi and Dele-Bashiru arriving from midfield. Eight different players have scored in their last four league games. Cagliari got their early results from a deep block and Caprile's saves, but in the last four they conceded ten goals, and their narrow midfield three leaves the full-backs two against one, exactly where Lazio attack. None of Lazio's absences is new: Rovella, Marusic and Gudmundsson missed the whole winning run. Lazio give little away in open play, so Cagliari will need a penalty or a Mina header. That's why I'm siding with Lazio to win.
In the Netherlands, Twente have the volume and the rest. Excelsior have conceded ten goals in four home league games and created very little, with much of their home scoring coming from penalties. They played a cup tie a few days ago, and their press is what suffers most. Twente's keeper and back line are the unit that won at AZ, and Weidmann's suspension in midfield is covered by Van den Belt. Excelsior's best spell is the opening half hour; after that Twente's pressure should tell. The draw is a real branch because Twente sometimes waste chances, so I'm with Twente while staying covered if it ends level.
In Alsace, Strasbourg give up around seventeen shots a game, and Auxerre concede heavily away from home. Auxerre's three senior centre-backs were all doubtful after missing Friday training, with two more defenders already out, and Will Still's team plays end to end and has scored in ten straight matches. Strasbourg need a win and their coach wants aggression in front of the home crowd. Whoever scores first, the trailing side has a reason to push and both rest defences are loose. I'm expecting goals here.
