Both of these matches turn on one side being asked to do the thing it does worst. In Seville, Alaves arrive with one of the thinnest away attacks in LaLiga and will have to find goals against a home side that keeps non-elite visitors quiet. At Pride Park, Derby have to carry the ball with their creators gone, against a Bolton side built to wait and punish mistakes. In both games the side that has to create comes up short on current content.
Sevilla v Alaves. Garcia Plaza's Sevilla don't create much from open play, about 1.0 xG a game, but at home against visitors outside the elite they have won three of three, 5-1 on aggregate. Their losses at this ground came against Barcelona and Atletico. They have a route that survives a closed game: Correia's set-piece delivery and Fofana's final ball, which set up both goals in the 2-0 against Osasuna.
Alaves under Quique sit in a reactive block with Boye as the target. Away from home they have no win in five, four goals, and very little in chances: 0.05 xG at Bilbao, 0.62 at Barcelona and 1.03 at Celta from twenty low-value shots. Their away problem is creation, not bad luck. Bueno's suspension is covered in Sevilla's midfield, and Isaac Romero, who took a knock last time, has been called available by his coach. Even without him, the set-piece route stays.
I expect Sevilla to have the ball against a deep block, with few clear chances early and a set piece or a Fofana pass as the likely breakthrough. A draw is the real alternative, not an Alaves win. That's why I'm siding with Sevilla, while covering the draw.
Derby v Bolton. Derby are bottom-three with no home league win, and over their last ten they score about 0.6 goals a game. This week they lost Szmodics, the club confirmed knee surgery, and Ozoh, their midfield screen, with Ward and Hedges also out. They lost 0-4 at home to Norwich, made 0.07 xG in the first half, and two defensive errors led to goals.
Bolton under Schumacher are a different side away. They sit in a mid-to-low block, win the ball and break through Dalby and the wingers, as with the interception for the winner at Charlton. Forino-Joseph won nine aerial duels and made sixteen clearances in that game, which matters because crosses to Carlton Morris are what Derby have left. Derby's patched centre-back pair now has to defend the exact transitions Bolton live on.
Derby's best window is the first twenty minutes, with the crowd and a set piece. If Bolton get through that, Derby have the ball without a way through and Bolton pick their moment. That's why I'm siding with Bolton here, with the draw covered.
