Palace's first pass and Hoffenheim's high press meet at the centre of this match. Palace can release Pino or Mateta behind a changed defence, while Hoffenheim can turn rushed midfield passes into chances of their own. The first clean shot and the response after a lead should matter more than possession.
Palace's attack was sparse against Fulham, and Newcastle exposed its exit under pressure. Hoffenheim have Kramarić and Asllani around the box, with Prass returning to add a wide arrival. Sarr missed Palace's recent matches and Sage did not expect him back yet; Mateta remains available for this European match. Hoffenheim's Hložek played against Bremen but is newly reported injured, with Lemperle a replacement option. These roles give Hoffenheim more than one route to answer Palace's early push, so I'm siding with Hoffenheim to hold or better in regular time.
