Como's possession has a second wave when its first box action is stopped. Venezia can defend with three centre backs, but its wing backs and outside defenders must deal with the next receiver as well as the first cross. Excelsior and Twente have a more direct opening exchange, with a long home outlet meeting an away side that can recycle wide attacks. Both games turn on who reaches the follow-up ball.
Paz receives between the lines for Como, with Couto supplying the far side and Douvikas attacking the box. Against Torino, Douvikas missed a major chance, yet Paz, Couto, Ramón and Baturina kept supplying late finishes; Como also held Sassuolo to one shot on target. Diao, Rodríguez, Kean and Chalobah were already absent for that latest comeback, while Addai's injury removes a more recent wide option. Venezia's Adams and Yeboah can use Kike or Busio's first pass, but Como have the current receivers to keep reaching the box. That's why I'm siding with Como to build a clear winning margin.
Excelsior can find Yegoian from Van Gassel's direct ball, and Naujoks has returned for shorter spells. Twente's Zerrouki-led midfield can then put Taha and Ørjasæter around the fullbacks, with Weghorst attacking the cross and its next ball. Weidmann is suspended, but Twente have named Van den Belt as his replacement; the recent AZ central defenders and Drommel remain available. Twente's wide runners supplied a late winner at AZ, while Excelsior's recent chases have opened space for another contact. I'm siding with Twente to finish ahead.
