Both of these Champions League nights look like games between sides that create plenty and protect little. Neither match needs a particular winner to be lively; what matters is how thin the back lines are and how much both attacks generate.
Betis vs Feyenoord: Betis play an open, high-event game, with about 1.7 xG created and 1.8 conceded per game over their last ten, and most of their goals come at home. They lost 2-5 to Barcelona three days after beating Porto, so this is a side that leaks as much as it scores. Feyenoord score freely, about 2.3 xG per game, though part of that is padded by weak Eredivisie opponents, and their win at Como was out-created on xG.
The key point is Feyenoord's defence: three defenders have been out for three straight games and Beelen and Moder are out too, so a patched back line faces Betis's wide and central runners. Betis are without Cucho and Firpo, which blunts them a little, but the chances are still on the table for both teams. The match should open up if Betis lead and Feyenoord have to chase. That's why I'm backing goals here, with a cushion if it lands on exactly three.
Como vs Manchester United: Como hold the ball (about 60% possession), take around 19 shots and 1.9 xG per game, and concede about 1.4. United sit at 1.8 for and 1.3 against over their recent run, so the blended picture is roughly three goals, even though United's last three games were quiet in attack.
United's defensive group is badly depleted per the feed, with centre-back and left-back cover thin, and Como are missing Kean up front. United's route is transitions through Fernandes, Cunha and Mbeumo against a Como side that gives up chances. An early goal either way forces the other team out of its shell. I'm siding with goals in this one too.
