This ALCS game turns on which starter can pass a manageable score to his bullpen. Cleveland's patient hitters can put runners aboard, while Tampa Bay has shown it can turn a short cluster of hits into a lead. The middle innings should decide which team can use its rested late relievers from a strong position.
Williams brings strikeouts, but Tampa Bay's order has hit right-handed pitching well, and Díaz, Aranda and Caminero can create traffic for Hicks. Jax has paired strikeouts with few walks in his recent starts, a useful answer to Cleveland's Kwan, Ramírez and DeLauter getting on base. In the previous game, Cleveland reached base repeatedly but left nine runners stranded.
Jax returns to a starting role after a short relief appearance, and both clubs have had a rest day for their bullpens. Caminero and DeLuca both played after their earlier collision, so Tampa Bay retains the hitters in this route. Baker has also shown he can finish a narrow lead.
I expect the Rays to challenge Williams before Cleveland reaches its strongest late arms, then use Jax's command and their relief options to limit the Guardians' follow-up hits. That's why I'm siding with Tampa Bay to win this match.
