Two home sides who hold the chance advantage in games where the visitors are short of attacking weapons. Both matches turn on whether the home volume finally becomes goals.
Chiba v Mito: Chiba are near the bottom but shoot more than they allow, about 13.6 shots against Mito's 8.1, with chance quality of roughly 1.7 against 0.4 on the short samples I have. Mito have lost five straight, including heavy defeats, and rarely threaten. Chiba's draws came in games where they out-chanced opponents, so the risk is finishing, not a lack of chances. I'm siding with Chiba at home, with a level result refunded.
Rennes v Lille: Rennes are strong at home, 8 wins and 2 draws in 10, with around 17 shots a game and chance quality near 1.8. Lille's usual forwards are listed unavailable, which cuts their route to goals, though that comes from one source so I lean on the home numbers more. Rennes can concede through errors, but at home the volume should tell. I'm siding with Rennes, with the draw covered.
