Two sides stuck at the bottom with the same number of points, but the chance numbers split them. Chiba create more and concede less quality than their results show, while Avispa have been out-shot and have lost most of their recent games. It is a tense, low-trust match where one early goal or mistake can change the picture.
Chiba are twentieth and winless in most of their league games, yet over the recent games with stats their expected goals read clearly ahead of Avispa's, with roughly equal shot volume allowed. Their last ten show two wins, four draws and four defeats. Avispa have won one of their last ten, scoring seven and conceding sixteen.
The key matchup is Chiba's home shot volume against an Avispa defence that allows well over thirteen shots a game, while Avispa score under one goal a game. Chiba's own problem is finishing: several draws came despite more shots. Some injury flags on both sides come from a single source, so I am not leaning on them.
Avispa's route is a set piece or counter, as in their June win at Chiba. I expect Chiba to have the better of the chances and Avispa to sit deep and hope. That's why I'm siding with Chiba, with the draw protected because Chiba draw often.
