In Montreal, the league's best defence meets a home side that has lost its striker, three defenders and its legs after a 120-minute cup final, so the home team has very little to hurt anyone with. In New Jersey it's the opposite picture: a pressing Red Bulls side that must win faces Miami's front three behind a patched-up back line. One game should be controlled and narrow, the other stretched at both ends.
Nashville have conceded 23 in 30 and give up around one expected goal a game. Montreal are without Owusu, their 15-goal striker, and without him they managed two shots on target in each of their last two league games. Ceballos, Neal and Hidalgo are also out at the back, and a backup keeper is in goal. Nashville should have the ball and the better chances, but away from home they tend to keep games tight: three wins, four draws and two defeats in their last nine on the road, with the wins mostly by a single goal. A draw is enough to clinch the Shield for them, and the last three meetings in Montreal ended 1-0, 0-0 and 1-1. That's why I'm siding with a low-scoring game in Montreal.
At Red Bull Arena, every goal in Miami's last three wins went through Messi, Suárez and Berterame, and the Red Bulls have conceded inside the first five minutes in three of their last four. Bradley's side is at its best pressing a team that wants the ball: they had 28 shots and won 4-1 against San Diego. Now they face a Miami back line without the suspended Falcon, with Casemiro filling in at centre-back and the holding midfield short of bodies.
The Red Bulls are three points off a play-off place and must push even if they fall behind, which keeps the game open after the first goal. Miami still give up a lot of shots on the road, and the trio has answered from behind before. That's why I'm siding with goals in New Jersey.
