Two English matches where the headline numbers come from a different kind of opponent. Burnley's high-scoring games came against teams that peppered them with shots, and Portsmouth away are not that team. Bournemouth's winning run came mostly against weak or rotated sides, and Leeds are an organised, defence-first visitor. In both games, the opponent this time changes what those records mean.
Burnley v Portsmouth: Burnley have had plenty of goals in their games, but those concessions were built by Lincoln, Wolves and Derby taking 17 to 21 shots. Portsmouth on the road are a mid-block side. They took 8 shots at Wolves and 9 at Norwich, and they have not scored more than once in any of their last five away games. That record was built with the same Pack and Mohamed pivot and the same Poole and Dia back line expected here, so their midfield absences are already in it. When Burnley have had to carry the ball against a set block, as against Derby, they created very little. I expect a cagey game with a lot of Burnley possession, Portsmouth relying on second balls and set pieces, and a low score.
Bournemouth v Leeds: three of Bournemouth's five straight wins came against sides that offered almost nothing, the Man Utd win came from opponent errors on 37% possession, and the cup win was against the run of the chances. Against organised league sides at home this season they drew with Everton and Brentford and lost to Liverpool. Leeds have conceded zero or one goal in eight of their last ten. Without Rodon they still held Man Utd and Sunderland under one expected goal. Calvert-Lewin in the air or a set piece is enough for them to take something. The key contest is Bournemouth's press against a Leeds back three with Justin in the middle.
That's why I'm going with a low-scoring game at Turf Moor and with Leeds to leave the south coast unbeaten.
