Both matches come down to a depleted back line against a side that creates more. One has a visitor missing half its defence, the other a home side missing both of its regular centre-backs and barely scoring at home.
Porto against Napoli: Napoli are without six defenders and have conceded fifteen in ten, eight in five away games. Porto create good volume at home with plenty of shots on target and a strong home record. Napoli still score, with three or more goals in four of their last ten even without their key attacker, so a reply is likely. Porto should press, take an early lead, and Napoli have to open up. The way this tilts is toward goals, which is why I'm on the side of plenty of goals here.
Bristol City against Wolves: Wolves have the better chance profile, more shots and a stronger defensive record, and Bristol have scored once in their last four home games with centre-backs out. Wolves' forward absences are not new; they won 3-0 and 1-0 with the same group. Bristol did create plenty in their win at Bolton, so I am not asking for a big margin, only that Wolves are the better side on the night. That's why I'm siding with Wolves.
