Two very different games, but both come down to how the teams are built. In Brisbane against Perth, neither defence keeps the ball out of its own half for long, so this should be a loose, open match. In Okinawa, Ryukyu are a different team at home than on the road, and Gunma arrive on a slide.
Brisbane open their league season at home after twelve days of rest. Their numbers come from a small, older sample, but they create more than they allow. Perth have been out-shot in their games, giving up about seventeen shots a match, and they have not won away in their last eleven. Brisbane's own defence has leaked too: twenty-three goals in eleven home games. Eight of the last ten meetings between these sides produced three or more goals. Brisbane lose their forward Postolachi, which trims the finishing a little but does not change the shape of the game. I expect chances at both ends, and that is why I'm on the goals side here.
Ryukyu have scored 94, 99 and 90 in their recent home games and have been far better in front of their own crowd than away, where they lost heavily at Shiga. Gunma have lost their last two, and their own coach points to second-half switching mistakes and conceded offensive rebounds. Ryukyu's big man Kawamata is back from injury and already grabbing offensive boards. Gunma did win here by eleven two weeks ago, and they are the slightly better side, but the home form and Gunma's second-half troubles point to a close game. That's why I'm siding with Ryukyu getting the points at home.
