Two matches where the chances on paper do not match the table or the recent scorelines, and where both sides have a clear job to do. One is a visitor who keeps winning the shot battle while a home side leaks chances. The other is a pair of back lines that have both been thinned out by injuries.
Bolton against Middlesbrough. Boro have out-created their opponents by a wide margin over their last nine, with far more shots than they allow, while Bolton concede a lot of shots and chance quality at home. Boro's recent draws came mostly in games where they had the clearly bigger chances but did not finish, which is a finishing problem rather than a structural one. Bolton's best route is to sit deep and score on a counter or set piece, as they did in a couple of high-scoring wins, but their home form has been shaky. That's why I'm siding with Middlesbrough to win.
Brest against Nice. Brest take a lot of shots and have conceded in every one of their last ten games, while Nice have lost three defenders and a midfielder, confirmed in today's data from two sources. Brest are missing two defenders of their own, and both teams are coming off enough rest that there is no obvious rotation reason. Nice create modest chances but keep the ball, so scoring once is realistic for them, and Brest's volume against a patched-up back line should produce goals too. Brest's expected goals are inflated by one huge game, so I see this as a moderate lean rather than a lock. That's why I'm siding with a game with plenty of goals.
