Two matches with the same thread: in each, one defence is weaker than the price suggests, while the other side's threat is smaller than its reputation. In Bergen, a Brann side short of attackers hosts a Viking team that scores far fewer away than at home. In Lens, a home side without a clean sheet all season is missing its two best centre-backs against an unbeaten Lyon. Both games come down to which side can actually create chances, not to the name on the shirt.
Brann against Viking. Viking lead the league on attack volume, but the split matters. At home they are perfect with 38 goals in 10. Away they have 16 in 11, including a 1-1 at Sandefjord where they created plenty and finished badly. Brann are already low on end product, with recent league xG figures of 0.76 against Bodø, 1.15 at Start and 0.74 at Sandefjord. Now they lose Ingason to suspension, Mathisen to a broken toe and probably Castro, who set up the goal against Bodø.
The key duel is Viking's left side, Tripić and Haugen, crossing against a Brann right side that has been reshuffled all season. That is where Viking win the match. At the other end, Holm and Magnússon have very little support. Heavy rain and wind on natural grass should turn it into a game of duels and set pieces. Brann's keeper Nilsen already kept them alive against Bodø with seven saves. Brann have gone past three goals in only two of their last ten, and Viking can win this two-nil or two-one. That's why I'm siding with a lower-scoring derby.
Lens against Lyon. Lens sit fifteenth and Lyon second, yet the market prices them level. Home advantage, a new coach in Cahuzac taking his first home game, and Lyon's own missing defenders explain that. The bigger issue is at the Lens end. They have allowed between 1.6 and 2.6 xG in four of their five league games, have no clean sheet in any competition, and are now without Todibo and Nawrocki. Losing Sima also takes away their pace in behind, so their attack becomes slower and runs through Thauvin and Edouard.
The matchup that decides it is Lyon's runners, Nuamah and Openda with Sulc arriving late, against a makeshift Lens back three. Lyon have scored early in three of their last four wins, and an early goal forces Lens to commit numbers. Lens's best route is crosses and set pieces against Lyon's new Bacher and Kluivert pairing, and I respect that threat. But Lyon's midfield is intact, and their league defending has given up very little. That's why I'm siding with Lyon.
