Three Champions League games share one idea: a patched defence meeting exactly the kind of attack that hurts it. Betis's wingers face a Feyenoord left side with a centre-back filling in at full-back. Brugge's runners in behind face a Lens back three made up of third and fourth choices. Inter's high wing-backs leave the space that Shakhtar's wide runners like to attack.
Betis v Feyenoord. At home, Betis play through Isco and Roca, with Antony and Abde going one against one on the wings. Their starting XI out-created Porto and Lille in this competition and allowed very little, though they conceded twice in each game. Feyenoord, with the same injured group, created very little against Champions League opponents, at Barcelona and at home to Como, and won the Como game on finishing well above their chances. Smal and Bos are out, so Marmol, a centre-back, plays left-back against Antony, while Abde attacks the space Read leaves when he overlaps. Cucho's injury costs Betis a bench striker, not a starter: Parrott leads the line as he did against Porto and Lille. Feyenoord's route is the right flank and set pieces. But Betis came from behind in both European games, and Feyenoord have struggled to hold leads. That's why I'm siding with Betis to win.
Brugge v Lens. Brugge under Leko hurt teams in the space behind them: Forbs carrying from the right, Tresoldi attacking the box, late runners arriving. All four goals at Inter came that way. Lens press high under Cahuzac and make plenty of shots, but their chance quality has been modest, and Sima, their runner in behind, is out long-term. Gradit and Ganiou have been ruled out, Todibo is not expected to start, and the back three of Antonio, Baidoo and Udol was beaten in behind by Monaco and Sporting. Lens's best moment is the opening twenty minutes, when their press can force a mistake. After that the clock works for Brugge, because a Lens side chasing the game only pushes higher into the same space. That's why I'm siding with Brugge to win.
Inter v Shakhtar. Inter will have the ball and the shots, and they have scored in each of their last twenty matches. They have also conceded first in four of their last five against four different opponents. When the wing-backs push up, the space behind them and around the keeper opens. Pavard and Stones are out, so Carlos Augusto, a wing-back by trade, plays in the back three. Shakhtar keep the same back four and attacking line that scored at PSV and against AEK, with Alisson, Newerton and Mendoza running the channels. Marlon Gomes not travelling costs them a clean exit through midfield, but the wide route is still there. Turan says Shakhtar will not back off, and Inter, without a point, have to chase. That's why I expect goals at both ends in this one.
