This looks like a match where one side holds the ball and the other lives on the break. The home side keeps the territory and shot volume, while the visitors are the more fragile team at the back right now. Goals for both teams are realistic, but the chances fall mostly one way.
Besiktas play a possession game at home: around 60% of the ball, nearly 18 shots a match and an expected-goals figure about double what they allow. They scored 15 in their last four home games. Their weak spot is transitions, as the loss at Trabzonspor showed, when they had 19 shots and still gave up several clear chances.
Crystal Palace arrive with both centre-backs and their first-choice goalkeeper out. They conceded five at Brighton and three at Lyon with that same thin back line, and they give up about 17 shots a game. Their route is counters through Pino and Sarr.
Besiktas are missing midfield creators too, and a quick turnaround after the Trabzonspor loss is a factor, but volume and chance quality still favour them against a rebuilt defence. That's why I'm siding with Besiktas to win at home.
