Paderborn's first press should test Gladbach's build-up straight away. Gladbach have recently been effective with less of the ball when their first outlet reaches a forward receiver. The battle after that first pass, including the far-side run and second ball, shapes the match more than territory.
Machino can receive beyond Paderborn's pressure, with Mohya and Hack linking on the left and Scally arriving across the line. Paderborn have Götze and Castañeda to advance centrally and Obermair to deliver wide, but their recent early pressure has not consistently become a clean finish.
Bolin is newly absent after playing in Gladbach's last two matches. Machino, Mohya, Hack and Scally all played in those games, while Paderborn's main absences were already present in its recent side. Vidović and Michel had only limited Hamburg minutes before missing the cup.
Gladbach's current receivers have already turned a press escape into box contacts, and Paderborn have a shorter recovery after their cup match. I expect the home outlet and far-side follow-up to produce the decisive phase, so I'm siding with Gladbach to win.
